Individual Probability Estimates for the External Evidence

Here we estimate the probability that the Talmud of Jmmanuel (TJ) is a hoax—a modern, 20th-century hoax—based upon the external evidence. This is the available evidence not associated with its textual contents, upon comparing that against the Gospel of Matthew as done in the Mt-TJ verse comparisons, but rather evidence associated with the TJ's discovery and provenance. This probability estimate, lying between 0 and 1, is denoted by PHoax.

Subject MatterPHoax
Concerning Eduard Meier's credibility. Those closest to Meier, who have known him for years,
have attested to the genuineness of his UFO contacts, to his honesty and absence of any deception in his
activities or demeanor. The reality inherent in his UFO photographs, including the practical impossibility of
having utilized a model UFO to achieve what his photos and movie-camera film shows in at least five
occasions (discussed elsewhere in this website), further attests to Meier's honesty, as do the several dozen
witnesses who have seen remarkable events associated with his contacts and sometimes the associated
UFOs also. All this supports his account on having been in on the discovery of the TJ with Isa Rashid.
0.1
On the other hand, those who deny the UFO evidence must conclude that Meier somehow fooled many
people into thinking they saw things they didn't see, or else cajoled dozens of people to make up false
supportive statements without any of them admitting it up to 25 years later. Not very probable.
Although Meier's wifedisavowed Meier's contacts and UFO evidence at the time she divorced him some
20 years after his Pleiadian contacts commenced, at that earlier time in the mid and late 1970s she and her
children were daytime witnesses to the beamship and to other evidence of Meier's contacts, as preserved
in an important interview on video tape.
0.4